Books with title The Black Swan

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

“The Black Box is not a tale of a great man. This story is about someone like you: a human being endeavoring to make tomorrow better than today. Each chapter recounts a formative experience and concludes with a Black Box: an explanation of how a given situation helped me develop the mindset required to thrive in that type of environment.An airplane’s black box records flight data as well as the voices and radio transmissions in the cockpit of the airliner. When an airplane crashes engineers look into the black box to learn about what went wrong. However, black boxes also have stories of success, but they are rarely referenced for those narratives.Your black box is filled with helpful memories, but so often you fail to look into your black box to pull wisdom from it. Sometimes we avoid looking into our black box because it means seeing our hardships replayed, seeing things that cause us fear and pain. As you peer into my black box, it will inspire you to look into your black box. Our black boxes are filled with explanations of why we crash as well as stories of how we have soared above turbulence. Most of these chapters have been developed as self encapsulated stories from which a moral can be drawn without reference to previous chapters. I share the story of my life knowing that my achievements outstrip those of the average person only by a modest margin. The validity of this work lies in the distance between my starting point and where I stand today. This book is about you. It should drive you to consult your black box as you adventure through life.

Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. With its revolutionary examination of the impact of highly improbable events, this New York Times bestseller took the world by storm. Not all swans are white, and not all events—no matter what the experts think—are predictable. Every so often, one of these unpredictable events occurs and has an immeasurable impact on the world—such as 9/11. Taleb argues the problem is that humans focus too much thought on what they already know, and not enough on what they don’t. The trick is understanding how to deal with black swans when they appear, and how to benefit from them.Witty and irreverant, The Black Swan holds the power to change—for the better—the way people think about the world. It is unlike any book ever written, and its groundbreaking arguments are lucidly articulated by narrator David Chandler.

Lives are in the balance in best-selling author Caroline B. Cooney's newest young adult thriller, Three Black Swans.Missy and her cousin Claire are best friends who finish each others' sentences and practically read each others' minds. It's an eerie connection so eerie that Missy has questions she wants to put to her parents. But she's afraid to ask. So when Missy hears an expert discussing newborn babies on the radio, it makes her wonder about her family. Missy just can't let go of those nagging questions, and decides to use a school project about scientific hoaxes to try to uncover the answers. She enlists Claire to help. As part of the project the girls perform a dramatic scene that is captured on video at school. After the video is posted on YouTube, Missy and Claire realize that they've opened Pandora's box and much more than they ever imagined has come out. Not only are their identities called into question, but so is the future of everyone involved. In this riveting, heartrending story by thriller author Caroline B. Cooney, the truth changes the lives of three families as the bonds of blood must withstand the strains of long-hidden secrets that are at last revealed.

The Black Box is not a tale of a great man. This story is about someone like you: a human being endeavoring to make tomorrow better than today. Each chapter recounts a formative experience and concludes with a 'Black Box': an explanation of how a given situation helped me develop the mindset required to thrive in that type of environment.An airplane's black box records all circumstantial things occurring around and within the aircraft, as well as the voices (and radio transmissions) in the head of the airliner. When an airplane crashes engineers look into the black box to study what went wrong. However, black boxes also have stories of success, but we rarely look to them for those narratives. Memories, like a black box, are nearly permanent records. Black boxes are stored in reinforced shells designed to survive 30 minutes in 2000-degree Fahrenheit heat as well as submersion in 20,000 feet deep water.Your black box is filled with helpful memories, but so often you fail to look into your black box to pull wisdom from it. Sometimes we do not want to open the black box and look in because it means seeing our hardships replayed, seeing things that cause us fear and pain. As you peer into my black box, it will inspires you to look into your own. Our black boxes are filled with explanations of why we crash as well as stories of how we have soared above turbulence.Most of these chapters have been developed as self encapsulated stories from which a moral can be drawn without reference to previous chapters. I share the story of my life knowing that my achievements outstrip those of the average person by only a modest margin. The validity of this work lies in the distance between my starting point and where I stand today. This book is about you. It should drive you to consult your black box as you adventure through life, and to use the experience, strength and resolve that you already have to make your journey easier and more enjoyable.

Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Not all swans are white, and not all events-no matter what the experts think-are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. "[Taleb] administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting."-Booklist

Now in paperback, the second installment of a haunting trilogy from New York Times bestselling master of suspense D. J. MacHale.At the end of The Light, Book One of the Morpheus Road trilogy, Marshall uncovered the truth about what happened to his best friend Cooper. Now in Book Two, we get Cooper’s perspective. What does his story have to do with Marshall and the journey along the Morpheus Road? It’s time to learn more….From a master of suspense, this fantastical tale contains shocking twists and will take readers down a dark path of discovery that will leave them clamoring for the trilogy’s conclusion!